Schraut Memorial Lecture

The 19th Annual Schraut Memorial Lecture
Dr. Kennon Copeland will deliver the 19th Annual Schraut Memorial Lecture on November 3, 2018 and will be immediately followed by the 2018 Alumni Career Seminar.   More about the Alumni Seminar >

Title:  Measuring Flu Vaccination Rates.

Abstract:  Influenza (flu) is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. It can cause mild to severe illness (9.2M-35.6M cases annually). Serious outcomes of flu infection can result in hospitalization (140k-710k annually) or death (12k-56k annually). The best means of prevention for seasonal flu is annual vaccination. A combination of influenza like illness (ILI) activity measurement and monitoring of flu vaccinations provides the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with information to target efforts and messaging to lessen the incidence of the flu. As part of flu vaccination monitoring, NORC at the University of Chicago provides to CDC weekly and monthly estimates of flu vaccination rates for children age 6 months to 17 years, by demographic and geographic subgroups. The estimates are derived from data collected during each flu season (October to June) as part of the National Immunization Survey (NIS), a large telephone survey collecting data on all types of vaccination from households and health care providers, which is used to generate annual estimates of vaccination rates for infants (19-35 months) and teens (13-17 years). In this presentation, I will profile the NIS-Flu survey methodology and detail the estimation methodology used in generating the weekly, monthly, and end of season flu vaccination rate estimates. Of particular interest is the impact of sample sizes on variances of the weekly estimates and week to week changes in the estimates. I will discuss these impacts and present the methods which were developed to provide more stability to the weekly and monthly estimates, and to generate the end of season estimates. I will also discuss future research intended to provide further improvement to the NIS-Flu estimates.

About Dr. Copeland: Dr. Copeland is Senior Vice President of Statistics and Methodology for the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.  He has responsibility for sample design and estimation methodology for government and public interest surveys. Copeland has more than 30 years of experience in sample design, weighting methods, and error measurement methods for large-scale household, establishment, and healthcare surveys.

Dr. Copeland has responsibility for the weighting methodology used for the National Immunization Survey. He developed the weighting methodology, collaborated on sample design, and guided implementation and delivery for the 2009-2010 National H1N1 Flu Survey, a telephone survey encompassing both landline and cell phone households providing weekly estimates of H1N1 and seasonal flu vaccination coverage, knowledge, behavior, and attitudes. Copeland serves as lead sampling statistician on several multidisciplinary healthcare research projects, and has served as lead statistician on research projects for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Asssociate Secretary for Policy Evaluation, and the Drug Enforcement Administration.

Dr. Copeland received his B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Dayton in 1975, and earned an M.S. in Statistics at the University of Kentcky and his Ph.D. in Survey Methodology from the University of Maryland.  He has published articles in   Survey Methodology, Journal of Official Statistics, Statistics in Medicine, Drug Benefit Trends, Journal of Pharmaceutical Marketing and Management, New Medicine, and   Scrip Magazine, and has presented papers to the American Statistical Association on topics such as nonresponse adjustment, survey weighting techniques, establishment survey design, questionnaire design, and automated survey management systems. In addition, he served as editor and contributing author for Quality in Establishment Surveys, Statistical Policy Working Paper 15 (Office of Management and Budget, 1988), and  serves as Council of Sections representative for the Government Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association and is part of the Organizing Committee for the Fourth International Conference on Establishment Surveys.


Department of Mathematics

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