Thursday March 29, 2012

A Rising Forecast

Survey says: Students at the R.I.S.E. XII forum were polled about their market predictions and presidential picks.

Participants of the world's largest student investment forum at the University of Dayton think the stock market in 2012 will be good, but not stratospheric.

That might be something to keep in mind for your 401(k) because students at last year's R.I.S.E. Investment Forum predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be above 13,000 today — and the Dow closed at 13,145.

Looking ahead to the election, this year's students picked Mitt Romney by a significant margin as the best bet to help the economy along as president.

The highest percentage of students (43 percent) thought that if elected, Romney would have the most positive impact on the economy. President Barack Obama only pulled 15 percent, less than Ron Paul (21 percent) but more than Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum (both 6 percent). Ten percent of the students said none of the candidates would have a positive impact on the economy.

It's the second year in a row that students at the forum made an accurate stock market forecast through the annual on-site poll. Attendees at the 2010 R.I.S.E. forum accurately predicted the Dow would be between 11,000 and 11,999 in 2011.

In today's poll, students were again asked where the Dow would be in one year; 47 percent of students said it would be between 13,000 and 13,999. They were a bit more bullish than last year, with 23 percent predicting it would top 14,000; last year only 7 percent made that forecast.

Students and professionals attending the first day of the R.I.S.E. forum were invited to vote on six poll questions via text message. The results reflect the responses of those who chose to participate.

Other results were:

  • One of the biggest changes over last year was that significantly more students (71 percent) said it was extremely important or very important their careers or work result in a benefit to society, compared to 53 percent last year. Only 5 percent said it was not important compared to 13 percent last year. 
  • They're a bit less cynical about leadership; half the students said they trusted neither Wall Street nor Congress, compared to 62 percent last year, with investors doing better than lawmakers.
  • Concern about the economy was a bit greater, while concern about the deficit a bit less.
  • Petroleum still received the most votes (36 percent) for the industry that would achieve the highest returns in the energy field in the next 10 years, but was down from last year (43 percent). The students had slightly more confidence in solar and wind energy than last year.
  • Professional results were close to the student results in most questions, with some exceptions. More professionals than students thought nuclear power would do well in the next 10 years.Professionals also liked Romney significantly more than the students, pulling 60 percent of the professional votes compared to 42 percent of the students.

For complete results, visit:

About 1,600 students, faculty and professionals are participating in the R.I.S.E. XII forum sponsored by the University of Dayton in association with the United Nations Global Compact.

Celebrating its 12th anniversary, R.I.S.E. (Redefining Investment Strategy Education) is a financial forum for students, faculty and professionals featuring unscripted, interactive discussions with internationally known leaders on topics including markets, governance, risk management, energy and social responsibility.

R.I.S.E. XII runs through Saturday, March 31, with student and faculty breakout sessions, workshops, networking receptions, a career strategies forum and an optional portfolio competition.

Follow R.I.S.E. in several ways: monitor tweets by searching #UDrise or become a fan of "University of Dayton Media Relations" on Facebook.

For more on the event, visit

For more information, contact Cilla Shindell, executive director of news and communications, at 937-229-3257 or